An Overview of the Midterm Assessment of Astrophysics Decadal Survey

1. Describe the most significant scientific discoveries, technical advances, and relevant programmatic changes in astronomy and astrophysics — Chapter 1 and Chapter 2.
2. Assess how well the agencies’ programs address the strategies, goals, and priorities outlined in the 2010 decadal survey and other relevant National Research Council (NRC) reports — Chapter 3 and Chapter 4.
3. Assess the progress toward realizing these strategies, goals, and priorities — also Chapter 3 and Chapter 4.
4. In the context of strategic advice provided for the agencies’ programs by Federal Advisory Committees, and in the context of mid-decade contingencies described in the decadal survey, recommend any actions that could be taken to maximize the science return of the agencies’ programs — Chapter 5.

1. To sustain the"scientific vitality" of the program, NSF "should proceed with divestment from ground-based facilities which have a lower scientific impact, implementing the recommendations of the NSF Portfolio Review."
2. "NSF and the National Science Board should consider actions that would preserve the ability of the astronomical community to fully exploit the Foundation’s capital investments" in large facilities.

• The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is on schedule and within budget.
• Full implementation of the Mid-Scale Innovations Program (MSIP) has not been possible, however, by "subsuming previous programs into MSIP and by aggressive divestment from older facilities" NSF-AST has funded an exciting set of proposals.
• Participation in the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) would address the NWNH priority regarding Giant Segmented Mirror Telescopes (GSMTs). However, NSF’s participation has been limited.
• US groups have developed a plan for US participation in the Čerenkov Telescope Array (CTA), via MSIP. This would address the NWNH recommendation, though at a lower level than originally planned.
• NSF-AST has not been able to fund the Cerro Chajnantor Atacama Telescope (CCAT, formerly the Cornell-Caltech Atacama Telescope).
• NWNH recommended augmentations to the Astronomy and Astrophysics Research Grants (AAG) and the Advanced Technologies and Instrumentation (ATI) programs. The budget climate has meant that these programs have actually seen decreased funding.

Chapter 4: Progress Toward NWNH Goals – Space-Based Program

The committee notes that "despite a challenging budget environment, NASA-APD has maintained a balanced portfolio through the first half of the decade…" and indicates that the greatest challenge to continuing this balance is the cost of the JWST and WFIRST missions (more below).

• The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is "an ambitious and powerful facility that will significantly advance the scientific program." The inclusion of a coronograph is "justifiable within the scientific goals of NWNH." However, there is a concern of cost growth, and the coronograph is a schedule, cost, and technical risk for WFIRST. Because of this, Recommendation 4-1 instructs NASA to commission an independent technical, management, and cost assessment.
• US investment in Euclid, an ESA mission, has exceeded the level envisioned by NWNH, and therefore Recommendation 4-2 tells NASA to treat this as a lower priority than support for the Explorer program, gravity wave technology development, and X-ray technology development.
• NWNH called for an augmentation to the Explorer program. The full augmentation has not been possible, and the committee recommends (Rec. 4-3) that NASA-APD "should execute its current plan...of at least four Explorer Announcements of Opportunity during the 2012-2021 decade."
• Recommendation 4-4 indicates that NASA should restore support for gravitational wave research. This would be satisfied by US participation in ESA's Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA).
• NASA is planning to participate in Athena, an ESA X-ray telescope, which would address the NWNH priority. While the exact US contribution has not been finalized, the committee recommends (Rec. 4-5) that NASA proceed with its plan.
• Partly because of the development of WFIRST’s coronograph and the re-design needed to make use of the Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets (AFTA), the level of investment in the New Worlds Technology Development program has exceeded the level envisioned in NWNH. The committee, therefore, advises that gravitational wave technology development should be given a higher priority.
• The Inflation Probe Technology Development program is found to be well aligned with the recommendations of NWNH.

Chapter 5: The Next Dedacal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics

The committee feels that the next decadal survey should continue to make use of the Cost and Technical Evaluation (CATE) process for all projects, both ground-based and space-based. The CATE process offers an analysis of cost and technical risks for each major mission.

The committee also advises that future decadal surveys should consider the full life-cycle costs of each mission, including design and development, construction, operations, pipeline data processing, and data curating. This is a normal standard for space-based missions, but it has not been for the ground-based missions.

The decision rules within a decadal survey offer strategic advice to policymakers on how to proceed with the science program when actual budgets deviate from the assumed budgets. The committee suggests that "future surveys could incorporate guidance to the government on how to reprioritize when budgets are significantly different from assumptions."

The process used for NWNH involved five Science Frontier Panels (SFPs) and four Project Prioritization Panels (PPPs). The panels evaluated the white papers submitted by the community based on science drivers and technical and programmatic issues. The survey committee then "assimilated the reports" into a single, comprehensive program. The committee notes that this process, while complex and time-consuming, ensures a thorough vetting of all options.

In planning for the next decadal survey, the committee "concludes that incorporating a detailed assessment of the health of the astronomy profession — its diversity, the effects of major funding issues, and pipeline issues, among other items — could be useful for the next survey and executed during the survey process or prior to it." The private sector, international groups, and the entire US astronomy community should also be engaged from the outset in the upcoming decadal process.

The entire report is publicly available through the National Academies Press.