34th Solar Physics Division Meeting, June 2003
Session 5 Coronal Mass Ejections I
Poster, Monday, June 16, 2003, 3:30-5:00pm, Mezzanine

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[5.03] CME Prediction from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms

D.A. Falconer (MSFC/UAH), R.L. Moore, G.A. Gary (MSFC/NASA)

We have previously shown for bipolar active regions that measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms are correlated with active-region CME productivity (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2002, ApJ, 569, 1016). Guided by those measures and results, we have now obtained a measure from line-of-sight magnetograms that is well correlated both with our measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms and with active-region CME productivity. The measure is the length of strong-gradient main neutral line (LG). This is the length of a bipolar region’s main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is greater than 150G, and the gradient in the line-of-sight field is greater than 50G/Mm.

From the sample of 17 MSFC magnetograms of 12 basically bipolar active regions used in our previous paper, we find that LG is strongly correlated (99.7%) with one of our vector-magnetogram measures of nonpotentiality, the length of strong-gradient main neutral line LSS. We also find that LG is as strongly correlated (99.7%) with CME productivity as is LSS. Being obtainable from line-of-sight magnetograms, LG makes the much larger data set of line-of-sight magnetograms (i.e. from SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak) available for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no day/night, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.

This work was supported by funding from NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences (Space Weather and Shine Programs) and by NASA’s Office of Space Science (Living with a Star Program and Solar and Heliospheric Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program).

The author(s) of this abstract have provided an email address for comments about the abstract: david.falconer@msfc.nasa.gov

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