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B. J. LaBonte, D. M. Rust, P. N. Bernasconi (JHU/APL)
The probability of a coronal mass ejection (CME) occurring is linked to the appearance of structures, called sigmoids, in satellite X-ray images of the sun. By examination of near real time images, we can detect sigmoids visually and estimate the probability of a CME and the probability that it will cause a major geomagnetic storm. We have devised a pattern recognition system to detect the sigmoids in Yohkoh SXT and GOES SXI X-ray images automatically. When implemented in a near real time environment, this system should allow long term, 3 - 7 day, forecasts of CMEs and their potential for causing major geomagnetic storms.
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Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 35 #3
© 2003. The American Astronomical Soceity.