**DPS Pasadena Meeting 2000, 23-27 October 2000**

*Session 16. Asteroids III - Discovery and Dynamics*

Oral, Chairs: B. Buratti, C. Hergenrother, Tuesday, 2000/10/24, 10:30-11:10m, C106
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## [16.01] Collision probabilities for Earth-approaching asteroids

*J. Virtanen, K. Muinonen (Univ. Helsinki), E. Bowell (Lowell Observatory)*

We are assessing the collision probabilities for
Earth-approaching asteroids in the case of small numbers of
observations and/or short observational arcs. Our methods
are based on the statistical initial-orbital-ranging
technique, which results in a rigorous a posteriori
probablility density for the orbital elements. We provide
initial upper bounds for the collision probability in the
primary close approach together with the actual rigorous
collision probabilities both in the primary and subsequent
close approaches. Thus, we provide an independent comparison
of collision probabilities published, e.g., at the NeoDys
WWW-site. We also aim to offer an independent WWW collision
probability service at the University of Helsinki in the
near future. We are applying the methods to, e.g., the lost
asteroid 1998 OX_{4} for which we find non-vanishing
probabilities for a collision with the Earth for a number of
years after 2012. We will be looking into the possibility of
speeding up both the approximate and rigorous collision
probability computation as well as the orbital-ranging
technique---also in view of the forthcoming WWW service to
be up-to-date.

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