Solar Physics Division Meeting 2000, June 19-22
Session 2. Corona, Solar Wind, Flares, CMEs, Solar-stellar, Instrumentation, Other
Display, Chair: J. Krall, Monday-Thursday, June 19, 2000, 8:00am-6:00pm, Forum Ballroom

[Previous] | [Session 2] | [Next]

[2.113] Prediction of X-Ray Flare Evolution using Temporal Lognormal Fits

P.L. Bornmann (NOAA/SEC)

The lognormal function, a gaussian with log time, can be used to fit the temporal evolution of the observed x-ray flux from solar flares observed with the disk-integrating GOES X-Ray Sensor. Current fits are reproducing the decay of the x-ray flare based on four fitting parameters derived from the rise phase observations. This the first time we have had a method for predicting the decay of the event from the evolution during the rise phase. This approach also provides the potential to predict the time-integrated (and spatially integrated) flux used for prediction of a subsequent particle event before the flare actually begins to decay. It also provides an opportunity to predict when a flare will fall below levels that have significance to human systems such as short-wave radio and over-the-horizon radar. Scientifically, the success of the lognormal function can be viewed as evidence that the release of x-ray emission is based on a series of physical processes for which the output is statistically proportional to the input (for example, collisional excitation and perhaps energy release as an avalanche of multiple reconnection sites). The success of many of the fits raises the question of why some fits are less successful and whether they represent a unique class of event or merely a limitation of the current fitting process.

If you would like more information about this abstract, please follow the link to This link was provided by the author. When you follow it, you will leave the Web site for this meeting; to return, you should use the Back comand on your browser.

The author(s) of this abstract have provided an email address for comments about the abstract:

[Previous] | [Session 2] | [Next]