Solar Physics Division Meeting 2000, June 19-22
Session 9. Living with a Star 3: Space Weather Aspects
Oral, Chair: D. H. Hathaway, Tuesday, June 20, 2000, 1:30-3:00, 3:30-4:00pm, Forum

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[9.05] Implementation and Verification of the Chen Prediction Technique for Forecasting Large Nonrecurrent Storms*

C. N. Arge (University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/SEC), J. Chen, S. Slinker (Naval Research Laboratory,Plasma Physics Division), V. J. Pizzo (NOAA/SEC)

The method of Chen et al. [1997, JGR, 101, 27499] is designed to accurately identify and predict the occurrence, duration, and strength of largegeomagnetic storms using real-time solar wind data. The method estimates the IMF and the geoeffectiveness of the solar wind upstream of a monitor and can provide warning times that range from a few hours to more than 10 hours. The model uses physical features of solar wind structures that cause large storms: long durations of southward interplanetary magnetic field. It is currently undergoing testing, improvement, and validation at NOAA/SEC in effort to transition it into a real-time space weather forecasting tool. The original version of the model has modified so that it now makes hourly (as opposed to daily) predictions and has been improved in effort to enhance both its predictive capability and reliability. In this paper, we report on the results of a 2-year historical verification study of the model using ACE real-time data. The prediction performances of the original and improved versions of the model are then compared. A real-time prediction web page has been developed and is on line at NOAA/SEC.

*Work supported by ONR.

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