Solar Physics Division Meeting 2000, June 19-22
Session 2. Corona, Solar Wind, Flares, CMEs, Solar-stellar, Instrumentation, Other
Display, Chair: J. Krall, Monday-Thursday, June 19, 2000, 8:00am-6:00pm, Forum Ballroom

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[2.83] An Empirical Model to Predict the Arrival of CMEs at 1 AU

N. Gopalswamy (NASA/GSFC and Catholic University), A. Lara (Catholic University), M. L. Kaiser (NASA/GSFC)

We describe an empirical model to predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU based on the initial speed of CMEs obtained from coronagraphs. The only input needed in this model is the measured initial speed of CMEs. This model is based on an effective acceleration that CMEs are subject to, as they propagate from the Sun to 1 AU. We developed this model based on the two-point measurements made from SOHO and Wind spacecraft. We validate our model based on older data obtained by Helios-1, P78-1, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft. We discuss the merits and limitations of this model.

Research supported by the National Research Council, NSF, and NASA.

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