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Session 14 - Solar-Terrestrial, Solar Wind.
Oral session, Monday, June 30
Ballroom A, Chair: David Webb

[14.04] Solar and Geomagnetic Precursor Predictions

K. Schatten (GSFC/NASA)

Recently a NASA supported, NOAA SEC panel of experts predicted that the next solar cycle would peak in early 2000 at a sunspot number value of 160 +/- 30, or equivalently an F10.7 radio flux of 205 +/- 30. This value was arrived at by group consensus, and close to both the geomagnetic precursor and solar precursor prediction values. We discuss:

1)The historical origin for precursor indices; 2) The physical basis for the solar and geomagnetic precursors.; 3) How big are the differences between these two techniques, and what do they mean?; 4) From the above, the listener may be able to form a better picture of the next cycle.

This work is supported by NASA.


Program listing for Monday